Candidate electability based on betting odds

Generated Tue, 28-Apr-2020 06:21:02

CandidateOdds of winning general if primary is won
Andrew Cuomo60.00% ( 50.00% - 80.00% )
Hillary Clinton60.00% ( 50.00% - 80.00% )
Joe Biden55.00% ( 53.75% - 55.70% )

Refresh and check back for updated odds

Technical notes

The algorithm takes as inputs the betting odds for the Democratic presidential primary and the 2020 election. Then, the electability odds are calculated using the formula p(winning|nomination) = p(winning presidency)/p(winning nomination). The ranges come from the difference in odds between betting for or against in the betting odds. The first number is based on the last price bet.

GithubIssueWatch