Candidate | Odds of winning general if primary is won |
Andrew Cuomo | 60.00% ( 50.00% - 80.00% ) |
Hillary Clinton | 60.00% ( 50.00% - 80.00% ) |
Joe Biden | 55.00% ( 53.75% - 55.70% ) |
The algorithm takes as inputs the betting odds for the Democratic presidential primary and the 2020 election. Then, the electability odds are calculated using the formula p(winning|nomination) = p(winning presidency)/p(winning nomination)
. The ranges come from the difference in odds between betting for or against in the betting odds. The first number is based on the last price bet.